New Study Reveals Economic Impact in Missouri of ACA Repeal

In January George Washington University's Milken Institute School of Public Health released The Economic and Employment Consequences of Repealing Federal Health Reform: A 50 State Analysis, which breaks down the cost state by state of repealing the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare.

The summary states:

Donald Trump and Congressional leaders have stated their intent to repeal the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA or Obamacare). This report examines the consequences of repealing two key elements: (1) federal premium tax credits that help low and middle income Americans afford insurance policies bought through the Health Insurance Marketplaces (exchanges) and (2) federal payments to states for expansions of Medicaid eligibility for low-income adults. Congress passed similar legislation (H.R. 3762) in late 2015, which President Obama vetoed.

This report analyzes how the repeal of these policies could affect state-level employment, economies and fiscal conditions. If tax credits and Medicaid expansions end in 2019, repeal would cut a projected $61 billion in premium tax credits and $78.5 billion in grants to states for Medicaid expansions in a single year, a total of $140 billion in health insurance and health service subsidies that help millions of low and middle income Americans.

Earlier research indicates that repeal would increase the number of uninsured Americans by at least 20 million, roughly doubling the number who lack insurance. This study demonstrates that the massive federal cutbacks could have broader repercussions, leading to substantial job losses, reductions in state economic activity and cuts in state and local tax revenues.

The cuts would first affect health care organizations and their workers, but would then ripple out into other businesses and workers in multiple sectors of state economies. When health care providers’ incomes fall, they must hire fewer workers, lower salaries and reduce their purchases of goods and services. In turn, workers have less to spend on housing, food and transportation, while downstream businesses are also forced to cut back. Thus, the enormous federal cutbacks being considered could have widespread repercussions.

Here's how it shakes out for Missourians, by the numbers

Jobs Lost by State Due to Repeal of Tax Credits and Medicaid Expansions in 2019 (Thousands of Jobs)

  Total Private Health Care Construction/ Real Estate Retail Trade Finance/ Insurance All Other Private Public
MO  -46.1 -15.4 -5.3 -4.8 -3.3 -16.2 -1.2

State Employment Results: Repeal of Premium Tax Credits in 2019 (Thousands of Jobs)

  Total Private Health Care Construction/ Real Estate Retail Trade Finance/ Insurance All Other Private Public
MO  -25.5 -8.8 -2.8 -3.0 -2.0 -8.1

-0.7

Jobs Lost by State Due to Medicaid Expansions in 2019 (Thousands of Jobs)

  Total Private Health Care Construction/ Real Estate Retail Trade Finance/ Insurance All Other Private Public
MO  -20.7 -6.6 -2.5 -1.8 -1.2 -8.1 -0.5

State Economic Results: Repeal of Tax Credits and Medicaid Expansions from 2019 to 2023 (millions of $)

  Federal Funds Lost Business Output Lost Gross State Product Lost State & Local Taxes Lost
MO  -$8,876 -$43,443 -$24,875 -$711

Every Missourian should have access to affordable care — and while we still have a ways to go before this is a reality — repealing Obamacare would put the gains we've made in jeopardy. 

Read the entire report hereAnd then tell your elected officials we need to keep our care.

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